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五味洋治のページです。主に韓国での北朝鮮関連報道を訳していますが、日本語で紹介されない記事を私の目でセレクトしています。私の執筆活動、経歴についても掲載しています。最近のお勧めは、北朝鮮の軍事関連報道です。日本のメディアが伝えていない細かなものまで拾っています。私がかつてここに書いた金正恩の性格分析は今も十分通用します。筆者へのご連絡はこちらをクリックしてください

2010年9月18日土曜日

間違った噂

日韓のメディアが伝えている、温家宝首相の発言。カーター氏は温家宝を通じて聞いたわけだし、間には通訳が入っている。聞き間違えた可能性もある。しかし、この発言は、中央日報にもあるように、当分は自分が実権を握ると言っている可能性もありそうだ。

いずれにせよ真意は分からない。

赤字部分の日本語訳

温家宝首相は、平壌への私の訪問にかなり関心があって、金正日総書記が私が受けたのと同じ積極的なメッセージを受け取ったことを確認しました。 彼は、金正日総書記の息子、キムジョンウンの将来の昇進に関してDPRKリーダーの言葉を引用しつつ、私たちを驚かせました。それは「西洋からのデマ」だというものでした。 私たちは、政権継承に関して真実を知るのをただ待たなければならない。

央日報の記事

カーター氏「金正日、キム・ジョンウン権力継承説を否認」
文字サイズ : 小 中 大
関連キーワード :カーターキム・ジョンウン温家宝後継金正日
  温家宝首相の言葉を引用して報告書

  北朝鮮の金正日(キム・ジョンイル)国防委員長が三男キム・ジョンウン(26)への権力継承説を否認するような発言をしたと温家宝中国首相(写真右)から聞いた、とジミー・カーター元米大統領(写真左)が明らかにした。

  カーター氏は先月25-27日、北朝鮮に拘束されていた米国人アイジャロン・ゴメス氏の釈放のため平壌(ピョンヤン)を訪問したのに続き、今月4-10日には中国を訪問した。

  カーター氏は13日、カーターセンターウェブサイトに載せた報告書で、6日に北京で会った温首相が「金正日が三男キム・ジョンウンの予想された昇進(prospective promotion)について‘西側の根拠のないルーマー’(a false rumor from the west)と述べたと伝えた」と明らかにした。

  カーター氏は北朝鮮権力継承の真実を把握するためにはもう少し待つ必要があると主張した。金正日委員長は先月26-30日に訪中し、胡錦濤国家主席と首脳会談を行った。

  韓米当局と専門家らは「金正日-温家宝-カーターという複雑なコミュニケーション過程で金正日の真意が誤って伝えられた可能性もある」と述べながらも「後継体制構築と関連して注目すべき部分」と見ている。

  韓半島問題専門家のビクター・チャ・ジョージタウン大教授は「北朝鮮状況は不確かなので、金正日の発言がどういう意味を持つのかを話すのは非常に難しい。しかしカーター元大統領が伝えたキム・ジョンウンの‘昇進’の話が権力継承と違う意味だとは思わない」と話した。チャ教授は「金正日が権力をずっと掌握しようとする可能性もある」と付け加えた。

  金正日委員長が幼い後継者が過度に浮き彫りにならないよう煙幕を張ったという分析もある。国家安保戦略研究所のイ・ギドン責任研究委員は「キム・ジョンウン称賛歌謡を金正日が観覧し、住民を相手にキム・ジョンウンを‘青年大将’として教育させるなど後継問題は間違いなく進行中」とし「後継自体よりも今回の党代表会での公職付与の観測を否定したのかもしれない」と分析した。イ・スンヨル梨花(イファ)女子大教授は「党代表会がキム・ジョンウンの登場ではなく、張成沢(チャン・ソンテク)ら後継者後援グループの地位を固める席になると予告した発言」と述べた。

  金正日委員長のこうした発言からみると、三男キム・ジョンウンが中国訪問に随行したという観測は誤りだという指摘も出ている。鄭成長(チョン・ソンジャン)世宗(セジョン)研究所研究委員は「後継問題が6カ国協議や経済問題よりも重要な懸案だとは考えにくい」とし「ただ、金正日が中国の首脳部に比較的具体的な話をするほど後継が進展したと考えられる」と強調した。

  一部では、今回の訪中で金正日委員長が温首相に会った事実が把握されていないという点で、発言の時期と言及の背景に対する慎重な接近が必要だという指摘もある。キャンベル米国務次官補は16日、米上院軍事委に出席し、「(北朝鮮関連)情報の一部は誤りであるケースも多い」と述べた。

http://www.cartercenter.org/news/trip_reports/china-090410.html

Trip Report by Former U.S. President Jimmy Carter to China, Sept. 4-10, 2010
Sept. 13, 2010
The purposes of our trip were to promote the expanding projects of The Carter Center in China, to enhance relations between the U.S. and the P.R.C., to fulfill our promises of last year to visit the World Expo in Shanghai, to ascertain opinions of South Korean and Chinese officials regarding North Korea, and to discuss other issues of mutual interest. We were official guests of the Chinese government, hosted by Madam Li Xiaolin, head of the Chinese Peoples' Association for Friendship with Foreign Countries.
During a stopover in Seoul, I discussed the status of the six-power talks with North Korea that can lead to eliminating nuclear weapons from the peninsula and ultimately to a comprehensive peace agreement among the DPRK, S. Korea, and the U.S. to replace the fragile ceasefire that has existed since the end of the Korean War.
In Beijing Rosalynn and I were met by President and CEO of The Carter Center Dr. John Hardman, Trustee Terry Adamson, and staff members Laura Newman and Yawei Liu. Our first meeting was with officials from Zouping County, where our Center has been working to improve village elections and now has a pilot project in enhancing Access to Information, called Open Government Information (OGI) by the Chinese. In both these areas of governance we are cooperating officially with the government. I then spoke at Tsinghua University to a public forum designed to publicize and promote increased access to information throughout the nation.
After a briefing by U.S. embassy staff, we met with the Minister of State Council Information Office Wang Chen, who is responsible for the dissemination of information, including "propaganda" and censorship. Because of our role with OGI and our Website that has millions of hits each week, our relationship with him is very important.
Our next meeting was with Premier Wen Jiabao, a popular leader who has been making some highly publicized statements calling for "political reform," while extolling the former administrations of Vice Premier Deng Xiaoping and Party Secretary Hu Yaobang, who helped bring openness to society and government. The premier emphasized that two key elements in political reform were village elections and Open Government Information. He was quite interested in my visit to Pyongyang and confirmed that the positive messages I received there were the same that Kim Jong Il had brought to China. He surprised us by quoting the DPRK leader regarding the prospective promotion of his son, Kim Jong Un, as "a false rumor from the West." We'll just have to wait to learn the truth about the succession in power.
As have all other top leaders since the time of Deng Xiaoping, he reminded me of my commitment on behalf of the U.S. government that arms sales to Taiwan would be limited to defensive weapons, and would be reduced over time - provided China would agree to resolve differences with Taiwan peacefully. Every Chinese leader knows that our commitment has been violated, including with the large sale of advanced weapons announced recently. This is a top concern for them. Except for this issue, this was one of my most warm and relaxed of my many sessions in the ancient Hall of Purple Lights.
We concluded our stay in Beijing with a supper hosted by Minister of Civil Affairs Li Liguo, one of whose responsibilities is administering the program of democratic elections within almost 600,000 small villages.
The next day we flew to Zhijiang, in Hunan Province, which was the operating base for General Claire Chennault and the Flying Tigers. When the Japanese attacked Pearl Harbor, this group of aviators was fighting alongside Chinese forces (both Communist and Nationalist) to defeat the occupying Japanese. During the dismal months just after Pearl Harbor, the Flying Tigers downed 300 Japanese planes while losing only 12, which I remember as a morale-boosting achievement. Some of the American veterans, their families, and Chennault's granddaughter joined a large crowd of Chinese for an emotional ceremony, where I spoke, and then helped unveil a large statue of the General at the site of the subsequent Japanese surrender. We then planted commemorative trees, in a temperature of 110 degrees Fahrenheit. The last time I sweated that much was in a South Georgia cotton field.
The next morning in Shanghai I participated in opening ceremonies of the International Friendship Cities Conference, attended by delegations representing hundreds of cities from about 50 nations. While I attended a series of meetings with the mayor and top party officials, Rosalynn visited and spoke at the Shanghai Mental Health Center. Later we met for a delightful visit to the World Expo, but only had time to visit the Chinese, American, and Spanish pavilions, leaving 180 others unexplored. China's presentations were breathtaking, and Spain's were colorful and exciting.
There is no way to describe the enormous changes taking place in China, with new highways, subways, high-speed rail, and extraordinary advances in architecture and education. (We are financing a large portion of our huge deficits by selling U.S. bonds to China, and now owe almost $1 trillion.) Their society is highly disciplined and benefits from long-range planning and financing that seems to be unlimited. It is interesting to note that Communist Party officials at any place are always preeminent as compared to mayors, governors, and presidents of universities. The Party is now actively recruiting the most outstanding young people, and the very serious students consider fluency in English to be a key to future success.
Our last day was spent in Changsha, again in Hunan Province, where the main event was a visit to Hunan University, observing its 1034th year of teaching. There are large statues of Confucius and Mao Zedong. Mao was not considered to be qualified as a student, but it is said that he swam across a river and sneaked into some of the classes. I made a speech to several thousand students, participated in a discussion panel with Terry Adamson, Mary Brown Bullock, and Marianna Feld, and then answered a wide range of questions from the students. It is always interesting for me to speak to large university audiences in China where no headphones or other translation is needed. When students ask questions, they are easy to understand, often sounding like native speaking Americans.
We returned home after what was another interesting and successful visit. 

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