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2011年1月3日月曜日

"休戦以後北挑発総221件..武力挑発26件" 聯合

この記事を見ると、やはり北朝鮮の挑発は日常茶飯事になっているのだなと分かる。

"57年間北挑発なかった年は5年だけ"だそうだ。

ただし、来年は挑発をやめ、核実験やミサイル発射に方向転換するようだ。

http://www.csmonitor.com/World/Asia-Pacific/2010/1224/What-s-North-Korea-s-next-move-Perhaps-a-nuclear-weapons-test

クリスチャンサイエンスモニターのホームページには英文で、過去の主な挑発が掲載されていた。

訳すのは面倒なので、原文をコピペしておき、少しずつ訳してみます。

2009N_forme000
(ソウル=聯合ニュース)金ホジュン記者= 1953年7月27日休戦協定締結以後昨年まで57年間北朝鮮の主要挑発事例が200余件に達すると調査結果が出た。


3日国防部が国会国防委員会所属宋ヨンソン(未来希望連帯)議員に提出した資料によれば休戦以後北朝鮮の主要挑発事例(停戦協定主要違反)は総221件であり,この中で実際武力挑発は26件だった。
これは国連軍司令部軍事停戦委員会連絡団が作成した資料を根拠とした。

挑発類型を▲武装人員.艦艇.航空機が相手方領土.領海.領空を侵した行為▲相手方人員.艦艇.航空機に対する射撃など敵対行為▲重火器の非武装地帯搬入行為▲共同警備区域私の武器発射や拳銃威嚇などで区分した。
休戦以後北朝鮮の主要挑発がなかった年は54,56,72,88,89年でただ5年に過ぎなかった。
年度別挑発件数を見れば50年代10件,60年代78件,70年代35件,80年代18件,90年代45件,2000年代35件で現れた。

この中で実際武力挑発は50年代1件,60年代6件,70年代2件,80年代3件,90年代9件,2000年代5件だった。

(ソウル=聯合ニュース)バン・ジョンビン記者= 3日国防部が国会国防委員会所属宋ヨンソン(未来希望連帯)議員に提出した年度別北朝鮮挑発件数現況.

武力挑発事例を見れば5,60年代には58年大韓航空機拉致事件,67年海軍警備艦の撞砲艦(PCE-56.650t級)襲撃事件,68年大統領府奇襲事件,68年プエブロ号拉致事件,68年蔚珍(ウルチン).三陟(サムチョク)武装共産軍侵入事件と大韓航空YS-11期拉致事件,69年米EC-121偵察機襲撃事件などがある。

7,80年代には70年国立墓地爆破事件,76年板門店(パンムンジョム)斧蛮行事件,83年ミャンマーヤンゴン爆弾テロ,87年大韓航空機爆破事件などが代表的な事例に選ばれる。
90年代と2000年代には91年武装警備艇ペクリョン島近海侵入,96年東海(日本海)武装共産軍侵入,97年テソン洞住民強制拉致,99年第1ヨンピョン海戦,2002年第2ヨンピョン海戦,2009年大庁海戦,2010年哨戒艦天安号襲撃事件と延坪島砲撃挑発などがある。

宋ヨンソン議員は"90年代から北朝鮮の挑発が増加したことは94年金日成死亡以後金正日の後継ぎ構図定着と関連がある"として"金正恩3台世襲構築のために昨年3月26日哨戒艦天安号爆沈と11月23日延坪島砲撃攻撃を敢行したことは独裁権力の金持ち世襲過程に現れる典型的な形態"と診断した。

ソン議員は"これから北朝鮮は韓国内に各種テロ強行と同.西部戦線そして西北図書と東海(日本海)などで多様な形態の挑発と攻撃を敢行する可能性があって,軍当局はこれに対して徹底的に備えなければならない"と強調した。

hojun@yna.co.kr

 

North Korea shelled South Korea's Yeonpyeong island Tuesday, killing two South Korean marines and injuring more than a dozen people. South Korea returned fire. Both sides claimed that the other fired first.

While the South has engaged in past attacks – notably in November 2009, when it fired on a North Korean patrol boat, and in June 1999, when it sunk a North Korean vessel – history shows that Pyongyang is often the instigator. A 2007 report from the US Congressional Research Service documents dozens of provocations, ranging from low-level naval warfare to assassinations of South Korean cabinet officers.

Here are seven examples of the North's military provocations over the past decade.

North Korean attack on South

 

November 2001

On Nov. 27, 2001, North Korean soldiers opened fire across the demilitarized border zone at a South Korean guardpost. South Korean soldiers responded with fire, though none were killed from either side. Another exchange of fire would not be recorded until July 23, 2003.

Despite the Nov. 27 incident, two days later the United States reaffirmed it would provide humanitarian assistance to North Korea and desired to resume talks.

And even after President George W. Bush in January 2002 characterized North Korea, along with Iraq and Iran, as part of the so-called “axis of evil,” Secretary of State Colin Powell reiterated that Washington was willing to resume dialogue with the North at "any time, any place, or anywhere without any preconditions."

 

June 2002

On June 29, 2002, two North Korean patrol ships crossed into the South Korean-controlled area of the Yellow Sea and opened fire on a South Korean patrol ship, sinking it and killing four civilians. Happening during the final matches of the 2002 World Cup, which was jointly hosted by Seoul and Tokyo, the incident dashed hopes that the soccer tournament might warm relations between neighbors.

The skirmish occurred just after Washington had signaled it was ready to visit Pyongyang and resume peace talks, leading some analysts to speculate the incident was a North Korean delay tactic, the Monitor then reported.

As with the most recent exchange of fire, both the North and South blamed the other for initiating the attack. The South demanded an apology, which a North Korean Navy spokesman called "the height of impudence.'' CNN estimated then that some 30 North Korean sailors were killed or injured in retaliatory fire.

"The military provocation of preemptive firing by a North Korean Navy patrol ship is a clear violation of the armistice and an act that raises tension on the Korean peninsula. We cannot keep silent," said South Korean President Kim Dae-jun, echoing remarks that would be repeated by other leaders after skirmishes with the reclusive North.

 

February 2003

A series of North Korean moves in late February and early March of 2003 appeared to send a signal to the incoming South Korean president and test US resolve in the region.

On Feb. 24, 2003, North Korea fired a single missile into the sea between South Korea and Japan, a day before South Korea swore in President Roh Moo-hyun. "The move seemed carefully calibrated to draw attention without being highly provocative ? a flashing signal rather than a red light," The New York Times then reported. "In its last missile test, in 1998, North Korea launched a missile that flew over Japanese territory, setting off a crisis between the countries."

A week later, on March 2, four North Korean jets intercepted an unarmed US reconnaissance plane in international airspace over the Sea of Japan. The jets shadowed the plane for 22 minutes. On March 10, North Korea fired a second missile into the sea between South Korea and Japan in as many weeks.

 

July 2006

On July 4, 2006, Kim Jong-il test launched seven missiles, including the 118-ft.-long Taepodong-2 missile potentially capable of carrying a nuclear warhead. North Korean officials called it part of "regular military drills to strengthen self-defense."

The missiles mostly landed in Russian waters. Japan suspended contacts with the North and called for an emergency UN Security Council meeting, although Russia and China resisted calls for sanctions on North Korea.

The missile test ? as with the Nov. 23, 2010, incident ? was thought to be an attempt by Kim Jong-il to increase his bargaining power at approaching six-party talks on North Korea's nuclear program. "Kim wants more cards to play in the six-party talks. But I think he has now miscalculated," Jia Qingguo, associate dean of the international studies department at Beijing University, told the Monitor then. "Kim may think he is getting more cards. But I think this will only make the voice of the hard-liners in the US and Japan stronger."

As then-Beijing bureau chief Robert Marquand wrote: "Kim, like his father, runs his poor and isolated country on a complex principle of "self-reliance" called Juche, which has turned North Korea into something of a cult of personality. Kim can't afford to open his society as that could force changes that could undermine Juche. Yet North Korea is in a part of Asia that is modernizing rapidly ? causing unknown strains on the North's system."

The same is being speculated of the most recent provocation, with Kim's son ? and heir apparent ? now seeking to project his own image.

 

March 2008

On March 23, 2008, North Korea test-launched a barrage of short-range missiles. "That move was prompted by the North's anger over South Korean statements that any expansion of the [joint industrial zone] project in the border city of Kaesong would only happen if the North resolved the international standoff over its nuclear weapons," the Associated Press reported.

The test fire was also seen as a response to the South Korean government's firm stance on relations with Pyongyang, with the South's newly instated conservative president, Lee Myung-bak, ending a decade of "Sunshine policy" engagement with the North.

 

March 2010

On March 26, 2010, a North Korean submarine in the Yellow Sea fired a torpedo at the South Korean naval corvette Cheonan, according to the subsequent findings of an international investigation. The ship sank and 46 sailors died.

"The evidence points overwhelmingly to the conclusion that the torpedo was fired by a North Korean submarine,” a report concluded. “There is no other plausible explanation.”

South Korean President Lee Myung-bak initially promised “resolute countermeasures” to make North Korea “admit its wrongdoings,” but the North has continued to deny responsibility, even offering to send its own investigators to South Korea to examine the evidence.

The United States subsequently held a series of naval exercises with South Korea, despite protests from China, which did not acknowledge the North’s responsibility in the attack on the Cheonan. The exercise was aimed at showing muscle to North Korea, the Monitor reported.

 

October 2010

On Oct. 29, 2010, North Korean troops fired precisely two shots near a South Korean guard post along the border, prompting the South to fire three shots in return. It was believed to be the first exchange of fire on land since 2006, the Guardian reported.

The skirmish came six months after the sinking of the South Korean naval corvette Cheonan, for which the South said it was cutting off diplomatic ties with the North until Pyongyang issued an apology. But instead of offering any such reconciliation, the North warned on Oct. 29 ? coinciding with the exchange of military fire ? that bilateral relations would face a "catastrophic impact" if the South continued to reject talks, reported Agence France-Presse.

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