中国は北朝鮮を放棄すべきだ FT掲載の全文


Beijing Should Abandon Wayward North Korea


The Vice Editorial Chief of the organisational news mail of the Communists' Party of China
金融時報(フィナンシャル・タイムズ) 2013.2.28
鄧聿文 学習時報(中国共産党機関誌)副編集長

 二つに、中国の地政的戦線としての北朝鮮の価値における中国の成層的安全保障は旧い。北朝鮮が冷戦に亘り役に立つ友であったとしてもである。若しアメリカ連邦が、平壌の核兵器の開発に因って、北朝鮮をその国民の安全への重い脅威と見るようになりまたそこに先制攻撃を放ったと想像してみられたい。中国は北朝鮮を我々の『戦線』に基づいて助ける務めがないのか? 若しそうならば、何の役に立つ『緩衝』が言うのに及ぶであろうか? 中国の自らの強さと開かれ様はその最も信頼のできる護衛となる。三つに、北朝鮮は改革せずまた世界へ開かない。
 北朝鮮の人民にとって、『中国の債券』を振り払うのは独立と自治の表現と見えた。終わりに、一度北朝鮮が核兵器を持つと、気紛れな金体制が中国に対する核の恐喝に加わるのが排し得ない。スタンフォード大学のXue Litaiに拠ると、ビル・クリントン元大統領の2009年の平壌への訪問に亘り、北朝鮮は中国の『身勝手な』成層とアメリカの援助における経済の貧困を非難した。 
 しかし若し北京がその要求を呑むのに失敗したならば或いは若しアメリカがそれに向けて好意を示すならば核武装の北朝鮮が中国の武装を砕こうとし得るのは全く在り得るべきである。 これらの論議を考慮すれば、中国は北朝鮮を放棄するように考えるべきである。平壌を見放すのに最も良い途は北朝鮮の南朝鮮との統一をし易くする主導を取ることである。

North Korea's third nuclear test is a good moment for China to re-evaluate its longstanding alliance with the Kim dynasty. For several reasons, Beijing should give up on Pyongyang and press for the reunification of the Korean peninsula. First, a relationship between states based on ideology is dangerous. If we were to choose our allies on ideology alone, China's relationship with the west today would not exist. Although both countries are socialist, their differences are much larger than those between China and the west. Second, basing China's strategic security on North Korea's value as a geopolitical ally is outdated. Even if North Korea was a useful friend during the cold war, its usefulness today is doubtful. Just imagine if the US, because of Pyongyang's development of nuclear weapons, came to see North Korea as a grave threat to its national security and launched a pre-emptive attack on it. Would China not be obliged to help North Korea based on our "alliance"? Would that not be drawing fire upon ourselves? If so, what useful "buffer" would be left to speak of? China's own strength and openness will be its most reliable safeguard. Third, North Korea will not reform and open up to the world. The international community once hoped that Kim Jong-eun would push reforms after taking power in 2011, and North Korea seemed to show signs of such a move. But even if he personally had the will to push small-scale reform, the country's ruling group would absolutely not allow him to do so. once the door of reform opened, the regime could be overthrown. Why should China maintain relations with a regime and a country that will face failure sooner or later? Fourth, North Korea is pulling away from Beijing. The Chinese like to view their relationship with Pyongyang through their shared sacrifice during the Korean war instead of reality. They describe it as a "friendship sealed in blood". But North Korea does not feel like this at all towards its neighbour. As early as the 1960s, North Korea rewrote the history of the war. To establish the absolute authority of Kim Il-sung, its founder, North Korea removed from historical record the contribution of the hundreds of thousands of sons and daughters of China who sacrificed themselves to beat the UN troops back to the 38th parallel that now divides the peninsula. Many cemeteries commemorating the volunteer soldier heroes have been levelled, and Kim Il-sung was given all the credit for the offensive. For the North Korean people, shaking off the "Chinese bond" was seen as an expression of independence and autonomy. Last, once North Korea has nuclear weapons, it cannot be ruled out that the capricious Kim regime will engage in nuclear blackmail against China. According to Xue Litai of Stanford University, during former US president Bill Clinton's 2009 visit to Pyongyang, the North Koreans blamed the poverty of their economy on China's "selfish" strategy and American sanctions. Kim Jong-il, then leader, hinted that the motive for withdrawing from six party talks on his country's arms programme was to free Pyongyang from Beijing. It was not directed against the US. He suggested that if Washington held out a helping hand, North Korea could become its strongest fortress against China. And Pyongyang revealed it could use a nuclear arsenal to coerce China. North Korea's development of nuclear weapons is, in part, based on the illusion that it can achieve an equal negotiating position with the US, and thereby force Washington to compromise. But it is entirely possible that a nuclear-armed North Korea could try to twist China's arm if Beijing were to fail to meet its demands or if the US were to signal goodwill towards it. Considering these arguments, China should consider abandoning North Korea. The best way of giving up on Pyongyang is to take the initiative to facilitate North Korea's unification with South Korea. Bringing about the peninsula's unification would help undermine the strategic alliance between Washington, Tokyo and Seoul; ease the geopolitical pressure on China from northeast Asia; and be helpful to the resolution of the Taiwan question. The next best thing would be to use China's influence to cultivate a pro-Beijing government in North Korea, to give it security assurances, push it to give up nuclear weapons and start moving towards the development path of a normal country.


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