中国が取り戻そうとしている版図とは

いくつかの本に、中国が取り戻そうとしているかつての領土のことが書いてあったので書き留めておく。

中国の夢は、清の時代、乾隆帝が築いた版図を目指しているといえる。その範囲はまた南はベトナム、台湾、雲南、ビルマ、ネパールに及ぶ。

 

十度にわたる外征を行った。北はモンゴル遊牧民のジュンガルを討ち、西はウイグルのホージャ一族を滅ぼすと、その地を、新しい領土「新疆」（しんきょう）と名づけて帝国の拡大を図った。また南はベトナム、台湾、雲南、ビルマ、ネパールなどに、それぞれ大遠征を行い、これにより清朝の最大版図（今日の中国の領土）を形成した。（十全の治・十全武功・十全老人）

 

乾隆帝はまず宮廷制度を充実させ、たびたび減税を行い、内政の安定を図った。また貨幣経済が発展し、各地の産物も広く交易され、茶や絹織物や陶磁器は遠くヨーロッパまで輸出された。大量の銀が海外から流入し、清朝の財政はかつてないほど豊かになった。

http://www.nhk.or.jp/drama/archives/subaru/rekishi/02.html

中国は紀元前２２１年から十九世紀中頃まで少なくとも１６００年間アジアで最強の覇権国家だった。七世紀から１８３０年頃まで世界最大の経済規模を誇っていた。

アメリカを刺激しないで、アジアに自国を中心とした新秩序をつくることが目的である。

 

中国の核戦力に日本は屈服する　小学館　伊藤貫著　４７ｐ

経済広報に記事を書きました

韓国のＳＮＳ選挙についてです。

https://skydrive.live.com/#cid=382E6BDC46ECADEA&id=382E6BDC46ECADEA%21638

韓国のSNS選挙について書きました

 

細かな部分は、新聞では書き切れていませんが、韓国のケースは今後、ますます関心を呼ぶでしょう。

FTの韓国語版 貴重なので保存しておきます。

中 당기관지 부편집장 "중국은 이제 북한을 버려야"

베이징=최유식 특파원

• 입력 : 2013.03.01 01:11

덩위원 "北 무너지는 건 필연… 한반도 통일로 정책 조정해야"

"중국이 북한을 버려야 하는 이유는 북한이 실패한 국가이기 때문이다. 중국의 원조, 무기 교역 등으로 어느 정도 버티겠지만, 대규모 자연재해 같은 위험한 순간엔 언제든 붕괴할 수 있다."
중국 공산당 중앙당교 기관지인 학습시보(學習時報)의 덩위원(鄧聿文·사진) 학습시보 부편집장은 28일 본지와의 인터뷰에서 "당장은 아니더라도, 중국은 북한을 포기할 준비를 해야 한다"고 말했다.
그는 지난달 27일 파이낸셜타임스(FT) 기고문에서도 "북한 핵실험은 중국이 김씨 왕조와의 오랜 동맹 관계를 재평가할 수 있는 좋은 계기"라면서 "한국과 함께 한반도 통일을 추진하는 방향으로 대북 정책을 조정해야 한다"고 썼다.
―3차 핵실험 이후 중국 내에서 한반도 정책 조정을 요구하는 목소리가 높다.
"크게 두 가지 반응이다. 하나는 북한이 같은 사회주의 국가로 혈맹이고 미국의 아시아 전략에 대항하는 카드인 만큼, 지금 같은 관계를 유지해야 한다는 것이다. 반면, 북한은 이미 중국의 전략적 자산이 아니라 부채가 됐고, 중국이 대북 영향력도 발휘할 수 없는 만큼 포기해야 한다는 시각도 있다. 학술계에서는 후자가 주류이다."
―북한이 미·중 간 지정학적 완충지대라는 시각은 어떻게 보나.
“냉전 시대에나 통하던 낡은 관념이다. 양국이 같은 사회주의 국가라는 생각도 우리의 일방적인 사고이다. 북한은 중국과 멀어지는 것이 독립이고 자주라고 생각하는 나라이다.”
―1·2차 핵실험 때와 달리 이번에 반북 여론이 높은 이유는 무엇인가.
“북한은 쉽게 말해 불량소년 격인데, 불량한 행위를 한두 번 할 때와 세 번째는 다르다. 김정은이 집권한 지 이제 1년을 조금 넘었고, 서로 최고위층 간 교류도 이뤄지지 않은 시점에 이런 일을 벌였다.”
―시진핑 총서기 체제의 중국이 대북 정책을 조정할 가능성이 있나.
“중국 시스템상 당장 바뀔 것으로 보기는 어렵다. 안보 전략 차원에서 고려할 요소가 많고, 이번 핵실험에 대한 전문적인 평가도 나와야 한다. 다만 미세 조정이 있을 것으로 본다. 대북 압박이 거세질 것이다.”
―김정일 사후 중국 내에서는 북한 개혁·개방에 대한 기대가 있었는데.
“세습이 이뤄지는 순간 개혁·개방은 이미 물 건너갔다. 김정은이 젊고 유럽에 유학을 했다 해도, 북한 집권층 내부가 동의하지 않는다.”
―북한이 개혁·개방도 않고 핵도 포기 않는다면 중국은 어떻게 하나.
“북한은 실패한 국가이며, 무너지는 것은 필연이다. 한국과 협조하면서 급변 사태에 대비해야 한다. 미국·한국과 같이 통일 과정에 참여해야 중국의 전략적 이익을 지킬 수 있다.”

China should abandon North Korea

 

By Deng Yuwen

The best way is to take the initiative to facilitate unification with South Korea, says Deng Yuwen

North Korea’s third nuclear test is a good moment for China to re-evaluate its longstanding alliance with the Kim dynasty. For several reasons, Beijing should give up on Pyongyang and press for the reunification of the Korean peninsula.

ホームページへのコピーを禁じているので、リードだけにしました。

昨年四月と八月にオバマ政権関係者が秘密訪朝 ロサンゼルスタイムス 一人はデトラニ氏

Secret U.S.-North Korea diplomatic trips reported

An Obama administration official visited North Korea twice in 2012 in an unsuccessful effort to improve relations after Kim Jong Un assumed power, ex-officials say.

North Korean leader Kim Jong Un, center, appears to enjoy watching a flight exercise in an undated photo released by North Korea's official Korean Central News Agency. (Korean Central News Agency / AFP/Getty Images / February 23, 2013)

 

By Ken Dilanian and Barbara Demick, Los Angeles Times

February 23, 2013, 4:32 p.m.

WASHINGTON — A White House official made two secret visits to North Korea last year in an unsuccessful effort to improve relations after new ruler Kim Jong Un assumed power, according to former U.S. officials familiar with the trips.

The brief visits in April and August were aimed at encouraging the new leadership to moderate its foreign policy after the death of Kim's father, longtime autocrat Kim Jong Il, in December 2011.

The ruling elite apparently spurned the outreach effort, however. This month, after a surge of fierce anti-U.S. rhetoric, the government in Pyongyang defied international warnings and conducted its third and most powerful underground nuclear test.

The former U.S. officials, who spoke on condition of anonymity because the back-channel trips have not been formally disclosed, said the first visit was an unsuccessful attempt to persuade Pyongyang not to launch a long-range rocket.

North Korea carried out the launch April 12. The missile flew only a few minutes before it exploded and crashed into the sea. A subsequent test of another long-range rocket in December was successful.

The April trip was led by Joseph DeTrani, a North Korea expert who then headed the National Counter Proliferation Center in the Office of the Director of National Intelligence, which coordinates U.S. intelligence agencies, the former U.S. officials said. It was unclear who led the August trip.

They said Sydney Seiler, who is in charge of Korea policy at the National Security Council, went on both trips. Seiler, a veteran CIA analyst, speaks fluent Korean. He could not be reached for comment.

The White House, State Department and CIA have refused to confirm or deny the 2012 trips, which occurred during the U.S. presidential election season.

"I'm not going to comment on this," Tommy Vietor, spokesman for the National Security Council, said in an email.

U.S. officials have visited North Korea on and off for years. They include Secretary of StateMadeleine Albright, who led an official state visit in 2000. The last official U.S. visit was in 2009 when U.S. special envoy Stephen Bosworth sought to restart stalled six-party negotiations on North Korea's nuclear program. The talks have not resumed.

DeTrani left the government last year and now heads the Intelligence and National Security Alliance, an industry group.

"There are certain things I just won't talk about, and this is one subject I really feel it's not appropriate for me to comment on," DeTrani said in a telephone interview.

Without confirming the 2012 trips, DeTrani said it "makes eminent sense" for the United States to conduct talks with North Korean officials after Kim Jong Il's death. DeTrani said he and other U.S. experts initially saw signs that Kim Jong Un might behave less rigidly than his father, including putting moderate figures in key government positions.

Those hopes were quickly dashed, however.

In addition to the rocket launches and nuclear test, the new leader appointed a defense minister, Gen. Kim Kyok-Sik, who reportedly was responsible for the 2010 shelling of a South Korean island that killed four people, and the sinking of a South Korean naval ship that killed 46 sailors.

"I was initially guardedly optimistic that [Kim Jong Un] was moving in the right direction," DeTrani said. "With the launches and the test, he's reversed that."

News of the secret trips first leaked out in the South Korean press, which said the flights from Guam to the Sunan airport in Pyongyang, North Korea's capital, passed through South Korean airspace.

"The South Korean air force was tracking the plane. They knew there was a special flight going to Pyongyang, but the purpose of the mission was a secret," said Moon Chung-in, a former South Korean government advisor on North Korea and a professor at Yonsei University in Seoul.

Some North Korea specialists applauded the Obama administration for breaking a long-standing taboo against one-on-one talks with Pyongyang.

"The trips were a good idea and I think the fact that they did them secretly was a good idea," said John Delury, a North Korea expert at Yonsei University. He visited Pyongyang in January on a private trip with Google's chairman, Eric Schmidt.

"I don't know why at this point the administration just doesn't set the record straight on this," said a former U.S. official. "All it shows is that we were trying to walk the last mile with North Korea."

Another analyst said disclosing the trips would subject them to scrutiny from Japan and South Korea, as well as Congress. The congressional intelligence and foreign affairs committees have not been briefed on the visits, officials said, although they would not necessarily be notified.

Chuck Downs, a former Pentagon official and Korea expert, characterized the visits as a worthy gambit.

"The history of this past year of seemingly unsuccessful efforts to seek common ground on which to deal with Kim Jong Un will, I suspect, be a very important study in foreign relations for years to come," he said in an email.

Japan's Asahi Shimbun newspaper, which also reported details of the trips, said U.S. militaryofficials conducted an unannounced visit to Pyongyang in November 2011. It said officials of the U.S. Pacific Command discussed efforts to recover the remains of U.S. soldiers killed in the Korean War, which ended in 1953. The Times could not confirm that visit.

The U.S. military's recovery missions to North Korea stopped in 2005.

ken.dilanian@latimes.com

barbara.demick@latimes.com

Dilanian reported from Washington and Demick from Beijing.

Copyright © 2013, Los Angeles Times

関連

http://www.j-cast.com/2013/02/15165655.html?p=all

核開発とミサイルにいくらかかったか

中央日報などからの引用です。

 

  北朝鮮の３度目の核実験の兆候が表れている中、北朝鮮が核開発に計７兆４０００億ウォン（約５３００億円）を使ったと分析された。

  匿名を求めた核専門家は２日、「北朝鮮は１９８０年代から核兵器の開発を本格的に進めてきた」とし「３度にわたる再処理で約４０キロのプルトニウムを保有中で、高濃縮ウラン（ＨＥＵ）生産のための遠心分離機も保有している」と述べた。

  長期にわたり北朝鮮の核活動を追跡してきたこの専門家は「核実験のための坑道や探知・計測装備など２度の核実験に２億ドルを使った」とし「寧辺（ニョンビョン）核団地や濃縮施設など核施設の建設に２０億１０００万ドル、核技術の研究開発に３億１０００万ドル、原子炉と核燃料工場の再処理施設など核施設の稼働に２７億２０００万ドルがかかったと推定される」と説明した。

  これは中国産トウモロコシ１９４０万トンを購買できる金額で、

北朝鮮住民に８年間も配給

できる量。核兵器運搬手段の長距離ミサイル開発費用２兆２５００億ウォン（約２０億ドル）を含めると、ほぼ１０兆ウォン近い費用を核開発に投資したことになる。また北朝鮮は寧辺核団地、平城（ピョンソン）の科学院などに約３０００人の核専門家を投入したと把握されている。

  この専門家は「北朝鮮は年間８０トンほどの使用済み核燃料再処理能力を持つ施設を独自で設計・建設し、８９年から稼働中」とし「少なくとも３回（０３、０５、０９年）以上の再処理で、約４０キロのプルトニウムを保有しているはず」と述べた。これは６、７個分のプルトニウム核兵器を製造できる量。

  北朝鮮は２０１０年１１月、米国の核専門家ハッカー博士に寧辺ウラン濃縮施設と１０００台以上の遠心分離機を公開し、ＨＥＵ核兵器開発能力を誇示している。北朝鮮は２０００台の遠心分離機を設置して稼働中と主張しているため、年間４０キロのＨＥＵ生産が可能だ。ＨＥＵ１５－２０キロで核兵器一つを作れるという点を考えれば、北朝鮮は少なくとも１０基（プルトニウム弾６、７基、ＨＥＵ弾３、４基）の核兵器を作れる核物質を保有したと推定される。

 

韓国政府は、ノドン・ミサイルやムスダン・ミサイルなど中短距離ミサイルの開発に4億ドル、1998年に発射したテポドン1号系列のミサイル開発に1億4000万ドル、平壌市山陰洞の兵器研究所建設に1億5000万ドル、ムスダン・ミサイル基地に2億ドル、今回打ち上げた銀河3号ロケットなどテポドン2号系列のミサイル開発に3億ドル、人工衛星開発に1億5000万ドル、東倉里ミサイル基地建設に4億ドルなど、北朝鮮が計17億4000万ドルを注ぎ込んだとしている。韓国政府はこれはトウモロコシを購入すれば580万トン、

北朝鮮住民の19カ月分の食糧

を確保できる金額と批判している。